Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
